Outlook voor obligaties

Durable income, rising dispersion and diverging global rate paths define today’s bond landscape. Our active investors across our fixed income platform highlight how selectivity across regions, sectors and maturities can drive alpha in 2026.

We are in a golden age of fixed income — and the opportunity is income
The most defining feature of today’s environment is the strength, breadth and durability of income. For the first time in more than a decade, we believe investors across regions can build higher-quality portfolios with less volatility and materially higher yields. This is not just a U.S. story: Euro area, U.K. and Japanese markets all offer compelling foreign exchange-hedged real yields, while securitized sectors, global corporate credit and emerging markets (EM) provide powerful income diversification. While this window won’t last forever — policy easing expected later in 2026 will eventually push yields lower — the opportunity today is unusually attractive, supported by starting yields that remain in the top third of their long-term ranges across both U.S. and European investment grade markets, especially in securitized products. (Source: Bloomberg, as of January 9, 2026.) Income did its job in 2025; the conditions for a repeat are still in place.

Interest rates are now genuinely two-sided and where you hold duration matters
The 2026 fixed income landscape is shaped by a new reality: Rates can hedge, but they can also hurt. Rising term premium, widening fiscal pressures in the U.S. and Europe and divergent global policy paths have made rate volatility more persistent than in past cycles. In this world, the belly of global yield curves stands out, offering particularly compelling characteristics. Importantly, central banks are no longer moving in lockstep. Global monetary cycles are now differentiated, presenting opportunities far beyond the U.S. — from Europe’s normalization to Japan’s regime shift to Asia’s varied easing paths. These realignments can reprice curves quickly, creating both return potential and the need for thoughtful, globally diversified duration placement.

Benchmarks haven’t kept up with how the bond market has evolved
Traditional aggregate benchmarks — across the U.S., euro area and global markets — remain heavily concentrated in government bonds. While these exposures still anchor portfolios, they may reduce risk-adjusted returns in certain environments and often underrepresent the segments driving today’s most compelling opportunities. Many of the markets offering the best income, diversification and structural advantage — securitized assets, global corporates, EM hard and local currency debt, private-credit-adjacent sectors — remain only partially captured in benchmark-heavy allocations. And while benchmarks are evolving, access to these “plus” sectors still requires intentional and skilled portfolio construction, not reliance on traditional indices.

Divergence, dispersion and the case for selectivity As global central banks move through
differentiated cycles, dispersion is rising — across countries, curves, currencies, sectors and issuers. Some regions are easing, others are holding, and a few are tightening. Labor markets, inflation dynamics and fiscal trajectories vary widely. This environment rewards precision. With spreads tight in higher quality credit and fundamentals diverging beneath the surface, the most attractive opportunities come from selectivity, and the ability to identify where fundamentals, valuations and liquidity align. This requires deep research, robust risk management and the flexibility to reposition as policy and macro conditions evolve. Today’s market rewards investors who can combine index efficiency, systematic insights and fundamental security selection across public and private markets, global rates, securitized assets, corporate credit and emerging markets. Theopportunity in fixed income is extraordinary and distinctly global. In this quarter’s Fixed Income Outlook, our leading active investors across our entire global platform share their insights on how to navigate this dynamic market.