Wat betekent een “nieuw normaal” voor obligaties?

Gaan we na drie jaar COVID, economische schommelingen, inflatie en centrale banken die worstelen met een onzekere toekomst, terug naar een “nieuw normaal”, met lage rentes, beperkte volatiliteit en beleggers die meer risico durven nemen? Of zijn we voorgoed een nieuw tijdperk ingetreden? Wat betekent dit voor de rol van kernobligaties?

Key takeaways

• For many years, we lived in a low yield environment where investors were herded into amassing ever-riskier assets with short or no duration, as central banks were predictably accommodative. In the new regime, however, inflation is expected to be higher and central banks are more reluctant to ease interest rates. As a result, fixed income is seeing high yields, even in the safest assets.
• Investors may wish to review the risk/return profile of each component of their portfolio and reassess the roles they play. With the promise of higher yields, a more balanced US Federal Reserve (Fed) and a healthier economic cycle, the largest bond allocation may finally fulfil its traditional roles: producing income and offering diversification from equities.

After three years of COVID, roller-coaster economies, inflation and central banks’ frantic fight against an uncertain future, it appears we may finally return to the world we used to know. The “new normal” – where rates are low, volatility subdued, and investors are willing to take on more risk – could yet return. But can it be so simple? After all the upheaval, are we really returning to the pre-COVID era?

We could be entering a new regime, where inflation is expected to be higher and central banks may be more reluctant to ease. As a result, fixed income may continue to see the return of yields, even in the safest assets. With a higher level of yields and a more balanced Fed/ healthy economic cycle, the largest bond allocation might finally fulfil its traditional roles, of producing income and offering diversification from equities. This is the “normal” investment director Keiyo Hanamura believes we will eventually arrive at. But, in the short to medium term, we are in the midst of a transition period as we allow rate hikes to work through the system.