Wat voor impact zullen de Amerikaanse verkiezingen hebben op EM valuta’s?
De uitslag van de Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezingen in november zal ingrijpende gevolgen hebben voor de Amerikaanse dollar en de wisselkoersen van opkomende markten (EM). Capital Group’s Currency Analyst, Jens Søndergaard, onderzoekt in dit artikel wat de uitkomst van de verkiezingen zou kunnen betekenen voor EM-valuta’s, door de impact op tarieven, sancties, het Amerikaanse fiscale beleid, onorthodoxe economische beleidsmaatregelen en immigratie.
The results of the US presidential elections in November are set to have wide-ranging implications on the US dollar and emerging market (EM) exchange rates. In this piece, we examine what the outcome of the election could mean for EM currencies, through the impact on tariffs, sanctions, US fiscal policy, unorthodox economic policies and immigration.
Trade policy is likely to be the main factor through which the elections will impact EM exchange rates. Former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump has consistently pledged to implement tariffs as a central element of his trade strategy, particularly targeting China. During Trump’s first term, the average tariff on US imports from China increased from 4% to 17%, which, according to a 2020 WTO report1, resulted in a significant decrease in trade between the US and China and caused substantial trade diversion to other regions.
While democrat nominee Kamala Harris also appears to lean towards some protectionist trade policies, she may be more targeted in her approach, focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) from China, for example, in an effort to protect US renewable energy.