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Investment Perspectives H2 2025 Outlook: Steady sailing in choppy waters

With elusive economic growth and a potential global trade war on the horizon, investors will re-evaluate investment choices. Confidence in US assets has been dented and investors are increasingly open to exploring alternatives.

The first six-months of 2025 have been nothing but eventful. But, whilst the Trump tariffs show was unquestionably the main event, as we move further into the year, the investment landscape will continue to shift led by factors other than simply this. Political, economic and monetary developments are all currently in play and combined are increasing levels of uncertainty within financial markets.  

In our previous edition of Investment Perspectives, we questioned whether markets were being too optimistic in their assumptions for economic growth. Were the underlying conditions really in place to satisfy investor expectations for a resumption of ‘normalised’ growth? Now, in addition to existing fiscal constraints in the US and UK, we have to add into the mix a protectionist US trade policy. This is likely to weaken confidence in US markets, increase borrowing costs and trigger a reassessment of global portfolios.

Investors are already revaluating the size of existing US allocations, seemingly receptive to shifting capital toward other destinations. Indeed, our analysis suggests US equities appear expensive with more value evident in other markets. Europe, and Germany in particular, with its supportive monetary policy, improving economics and more favourable valuations may prove to be a prime beneficiary.

For investors, all this uncertainty presents challenges, but also reinforces the need to remain grounded and maintain perspective. In this, our mid-year Investment Perspectives, the CIOs from our Fixed Income, Equities and Private Markets teams discuss how they are navigating the current environment and identify where they believe the greatest opportunities for investors currently lie.

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