Payden & Rygel
Een lijst met artikelen
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Bond Wars – Unconstrained Bond Strategy 2025
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
The forces shaping fixed-income markets find themselves at a confluence of economic, fiscal, and political factors heading into the new year. Inflation dynamics remain in flux, a new Treasury Department strategizes the balance between fiscal and monetary conditions, and Donald Trump’s incoming second administration all introduce important dimensions to policy and growth.
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Profiles of the Future: Our 2025 Macro Outlook
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
There seems to be a widespread view that inflation will remain “sticky” or re-accelerate in 2025. Even the Fed expects inflation to moderate slower in 2025, with the median policymaker expecting core PCE inflation to only reach 2.5% in the December 2024 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and not back to 2% until 2027. The central tendency of the FOMC projections skews from 2.5-2.9%, giving us a sense of the Committee’s bias.
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India Takes Center Stage
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
As the world’s 5th largest economy and most populous democracy, India is increasingly important for global investors and policymakers.
In the last several years, fixed-income opportunities expanded for foreign investors looking to gain exposure to India. While the Indian sovereign does not issue bonds in dollars, Indian corporates do, and they offer exposure to attractive sectors. Separately, foreign investors are increasing exposure to India’s rupee-denominated government debt on the back of the June 2024 inclusion into JP Morgan’s most widely followed emerging market local bond index.
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Long Live The King: Understanding The Enduring Reign Of The U.S. Dollar
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
Despite predictions of a significant decline in both the value and importance of the U.S. dollar, as everyone now knows, the drop in the dollar didn’t happen. Compared to other developed countries’ currencies, such as the Japanese yen, the dollar is up more than 30% since 2022. Further, since 2011, the dollar is up almost 40% compared to a broad basket of currencies! So why were the dollar bears so wrong?
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Global Investment Grade Corporates: Let the Good Times Roll!
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
Major central banks easing policy, solid economic growth and moderating inflation should bode well for global investment grade corporate credit. So, is global investment grade corporate the sweet spot in fixed income? We think it might just be.
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The Benefits of an Absolute Return Strategy
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
The absolute return strategy offers a compelling profile. Yields are above 7%, while the average maturity of the strategy is only three years (at the time of writing).
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Where the “Fair Value” for the 10-Year Yield Shakes Out
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
As a bond investor, you might wonder, “What’s the perfect recipe for the fair value of a 10-year Treasury yield?” The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important interest rates in the world. It affects everything from mortgage rates to stock prices.
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US Bond Market: Still Inflationary Pressure, not a Goldilocks Moment
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
I’m not as excited about inflation cooling off as some of my colleagues and maybe competitors are. We still see a lot of inflation pressure. Looking at median CPI month to month lets you filter through some of the noisy outliers every month.
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Demand for US Investment Grade Bonds remains strong: Natalie Trevithick CFA, Director, Portfolio Manager
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
We were too defensive last year but changed our stance early in 2024. Our theme this year is “Believe,” inspired by Ted Lasso. Despite tight spreads and fewer Fed cuts than hoped, we see strength in the corporate market.
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Mind the Gap: Should We worry About the US Fiscal Situation?
Aangeboden door Payden & Rygel
The U.S. federal fiscal deficit surged to $2 trillion in 2023 or 7% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).1 Put another way, the U.S. Federal Government spent $2 trillion more than it received in revenue during its 2023 fiscal year.
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